Nuggets-Heat NBA Finals betting trends: Moneyline, against the spread, over/under records in 2023 NBA Playoffs

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Aaron Gordon, Kyle Lowry
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Before you bet on any game in the 2023 NBA Finals, it's a good idea to know how the spread, moneyline, and over/under has fared for both the Nuggets and Heat throughout the playoffs. Recent head-to-head results and regular-season data can be helpful, but knowing the most basic and recent trends often translates to the most betting success. 

Today, we'll keep it simple ahead of Game 1 of the NBA Finals (8:30 p.m. ET, ABC) by looking at the moneyline and against the spread records of both Denver and Miami leading up to today. We will also take a gander at how many totals have gone over or under for each squad over the past month.

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Once we have revealed the ML, ATS, and O/U betting trends for the Nuggets and the Heat, we'll provide actionable betting advice ahead of the series' opening tip.

Good luck, and enjoy the NBA Finals! 

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Nuggets betting trends: Denver's ML, ATS, and O/U playoff records 

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The Nuggets have been far and away the most impressive team of the 2023 NBA Playoffs, going 12-3 straight up and 9-6 against the spread. The OVER has gone 8-7 in Denver's postseason games so far. 

The most impressive part of two-time MVP Nikola Jokic and the top-seeded Nugs in this Finals run is that they have gone undefeated at home. Eight games at Ball Arena, eight wins — making them an NBA-best 42-7 at home since the start of the 2022-23 season. Put simply, they've been a home moneyline lock.

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The Nuggets' home success against the spread has been a little different, though. Their cover rate is just 5-3 in the mile-high altitude. The O/U has also split evenly at 4-4 in Denver's home playoff games. 

Over the 10 games in which Denver has been favored during the playoffs, it has brought home the moneyline bacon all but once but covered the spread just six times. As an underdog, Mike Malone's squad is 3-2 both SU and ATS. 

Heat betting trends: Miami's ML, ATS, and O/U playoff games

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Jimmy Butler and the underdog Heat have gone an incredible 12-6 straight up and an even more impressive 13-5 against the spread during their improbable playoff run. The OVER has gone 11-7 during that brilliant stretch. 

Miami has gone 9-5 on the moneyline as an underdog and 11-3 ATS as a 'dog. The Heat are 3-1 SU as a favorite and 2-2 ATS as a favorite. Considering Denver is between -400 and -500 on most books to win the series, we won't likely see Erik Spoelstra's team favored to win a game this series unless Denver suffers a major injury or lays an egg during the opening two games. 

An important nugget to know (pardon the pun): Over the past 30 games in which Miami has been an underdog of seven points or more, the Heat have gone 15-15 SU but a whopping 27-3 ATS. Spo's squad has also gone 28-17 SU after a loss since the start of the regular season and 34-17 SU at home during that span. 

MORE: Finals x-factors, Jokic vs. Butler, head-to-head records, more

How to translate betting trends into betting success

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Put trends to work for you before making Finals wagers. Simply going with your gut won't lead to betting success — it's important to uncover what has and hasn't worked for both the teams and the sportsbooks. By knowing how each team has fared in various scenarios leading up to this point, we can also ascertain educated guesses as to how the Finals will play out.

For example, take a look at the age-old rest vs. rust debate. Denver has gone 18-4 SU and 14-7-1 ATS with a rest advantage, and the Nuggets enter the Finals with eight more days of rest over the banged-up Heat. Miami, however, has gone 37-27 with equal rest since the regular season began, while Denver has gone 25-26-1 ATS with equal rest. That might make us interested in Miami's upset chances in Game 2, but we aren't touching Miami's +290 Game 1 moneyline with a 10-foot pole.

We will, however, consider betting the Heat at +8.5 (-105) in Game 1. Even better, we may buy two points and bet them +10.5 at -135. We don't mind a little bit of juice if it buys us some padding. Miami has gone a perfect 3-0 against the spread as an underdog of 10 points or more this postseason. In the one game Denver was favored by 10-plus points this playoffs, Game 5 against the Wolves, the Nuggets won 112-109, failing to cover. 

Denver has been great as a moneyline favorite but not so great as a heavy ATS fave. The Nuggets are just 4-8 over their past 12 games when favored by seven or more points. Over the past seven, that ATS record as a favorite of at least seven points is just 2-5. They don't typically blow out opponents, but they steady-rock from the opening tip to the final whistle. 

If and when Miami gets points at home in Games 3 and 4, we would strongly recommend betting the home 'dogs. The Heat are 3-1 as home moneyline 'dogs this postseason and 4-0 ATS as 'dogs at Kaseya Center. As Butler said, they "got some dogs," and they also know how to unleash on opponents who come into their house as favorites.

We have Denver prevailing as champions, but the moneyline, spread, over/under, and home-road data tell us that this will be much more of a series than most casual bettors seem to be expecting. 

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Sloan Piva Photo

Sloan Piva is a content producer at The Sporting News.