After an exciting first three rounds of the NBA playoffs, Game 1 of the 2023 NBA Finals is officially set to tip-off tonight at 8:30 p.m. ET between the Heat and Nuggets. Denver has been the better team throughout the year, while the surprising Heat have looked like a top-three seed throughout their impressive postseason run.
Bettors will be placing a lot of wagers before tonight's Game 1 as they try to get the best value on sides, totals, and player props, but the exotic prop market on BetMGM is often overlooked. Not only does it feature more fun offerings, such as who will make a 30-foot three-pointer or who will go perfect from the free-throw line, but it's also potentially profitable.
If bettors were to explore those novelty/exotic markets, they could find a ton of value at plus money and get a bigger payout if one or two props hit. Below, we'll highlight some of our favorite exotic props for Game 1 and break down why bettors should consider putting down a wager.
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2023 NBA Finals Game 1 Exotic Prop Bets
To win the tip (Jokic-Adebayo): Jokic (-125)
| Player | Odds |
| Nikola Jokic, Nuggets | -125 |
| Bam Adebayo, Heat | -110 |
Unlike other prop bets where you have multiple stats to lean on, there isn't an exact science on who will win the opening tip. Sometimes, the best way to approach this prop is to go with the tallest player. Jokic stands at 6-11; Adebayo is 6-9.
Fortunately, there are a few stats to go on. The Nuggets have gained possession of the opening tip in eight out of 15 playoff games, and Miami has won the tip in nine out of 18 playoff games this year. More important, in nine career opening tips between Jokic and Adebayo, Jokic has won five. That's why we're giving the slight edge to Jokic for this prop.
MORE GAME 1: Betting preview | Best props
From Downtown: Duncan Robinson (+1700)
| Player | Odds |
| Jamal Murray to make a 30ft+ three-pointer | +950 |
| Michael Porter Jr. to make a 30ft+ three-pointer | +2800 |
| Gabe Vincent to make a 30ft+ three-pointer | +1700 |
| Max Strus to make a 30ft+ three-pointer | +1700 |
| Duncan Robinson to make a 30ft+ three-pointer | +1700 |
| Kyle Lowry to make a 30ft+ three-pointer | +1700 |
| Any player to make a 35+ ft. three-pointer | +1300 |
This exotic player prop focuses on which player in Game 1 will knock down a three-point shot from 30-plus feet. Nuggets standout point guard Jamal Murray is the favorite at +950 odds, despite going 0-for-4 in the playoffs thus far when shooting from 30-34 ft. Murray has done an excellent job from beyond the arc in the playoffs, averaging 3.1 threes made per game and shooting 39.8 percent.
However, bettors might get better value in wagering on Duncan Robinson, whose only job for the Heat is to come off the bench and knock down three-pointers. Robinson is shooting 44.6 percent from beyond the arc in the NBA playoffs and is 1-for-3 when shooting from 30-34 ft. At +1700 odds, it's not a bad bet, as Robinson will get his opportunities to put up shots.
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Rick Barry: Bam Adebayo (+150)
| Player | Odds |
| Nikola Jokic to not miss a free throw | +160 |
| Jimmy Butler to not miss a free throw | +225 |
| Bam Adebayo to not miss a free throw | +150 |
Jokic and Butler will get the most opportunities to go to the free-throw line, as they know how to draw contact. However, we will go with the betting favorite in Adebayo to not miss a free throw tonight. The 25-year-old center is shooting 79.7 percent from the line but has six games in this year's playoffs where he was perfect from the charity stripe. If anything, we want fewer opportunities here, which is why we're veering away from Jokic, who's averaging 6.8 free-throw attempts per game in the playoffs and has just two perfect nights, and Butler, who's averaging 9.1 free-three attempts and has only one perfect game.
MORE NBA FINALS BETTING:
Series best bets | Series props | Series player props | MVP odds | ATS, O/U records
Splash Bros: Jamal Murray and Michael Porter Jr. to make four three-pointers each (+525)
| Player | Odds |
| Jamal Murray and Michael Porter Jr. each to make 4+ threes | +525 |
| Caleb Martin and Gabe Vincent each to make 4+ threes | +1300 |
| Jamal Murray and Michael Porter Jr. each to make 5+ threes | +1500 |
It was tempting to take Murray and Porter Jr. to make five three-pointers each in tonight's Game 1, but we have to give the Heat's three-point defense some credit, as they are holding opponents to 32.5 percent in the playoffs.
So, if you feel like laying down some action on this long-shot prop, we would go with Murray and Porter Jr. to make four triples each. They are the top three-point marksmen on the Nuggets and aren't shy about putting shots up. Murray has made at least four three-pointers in eight out of 15 games while averaging 7.9 attempts per game in the playoffs. Meanwhile, Porter Jr. has accomplished this feat in six out of 15 games while averaging 6.9 attempts per game. At +525, there's an implied probability of 16 percent for this prop to hit, so bettors should only look to put a few dollars on it and not go crazy.