Odds for Miami Heat to win 2023 NBA Finals vs. Denver Nuggets

Do the Miami Heat have one more upset in them to make NBA history?

The Heat have knocked off the No. 1-seeded Milwaukee Bucks, No. 5-seeded New York Knicks and No. 2-seeded Boston Celtics to make the NBA Finals despite being underdogs in every series.

Just the second No. 8 seed to ever make the NBA Finals, the Heat once again find themselves playing the underdog role against Nikola Jokic and the Denver Nuggets. Miami is an 8.5-point underdog in Game 1, and the team is +310 to win the series.

For Heat futures bettors, the team has been a cash cow this postseason. However, oddsmakers aren’t sold on the team going all the way in 2023:

Miami Heat odds to win NBA championship

Implied probability for the Miami Heat to win NBA Finals

At +310 odds, the Heat have an implied probability of just 24.39 percent to win the NBA Finals this season.

Surprisingly, those odds are better than the team’s odds to win the Eastern Conference Finals, as Miami opened as a +400 underdog against the Boston Celtics.

It seems like oddsmakers expect Miami’s magical run to come to an end in Denver against a Nuggets team that has been dominant at home this season, going 34-7 in the regular season and 8-0 in the playoffs.

The key for Miami will be the production from its role players, as Caleb Martin, Gabe Vincent, Duncan Robinson, Max Strus and others have stepped up when needed to give Jimmy Butler the necessary help to make this run.

With Tyler Herro reportedly targeting a return to the lineup in Game 3 of the NBA Finals, is Miami undervalued at +310?

Personally, I’d wait to bet on Miami to see if the team loses Game 1 on the road, where Denver is a heavy favorite. That will give Miami even longer odds to win, but the team has shown it can do so this postseason.

—

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.