NBA News

Home

Teams

Quizzes

Watch

Newsletter

Gary A. Vasquez-USA TODAY Sports

NBA Finals betting: A quick look at Nuggets vs. Heat

By Matt Wiesenfeld | Last updated 5/30/23

Well, we finally have the teams set for the NBA Finals. Boston made us wait, but in the end the Heat were undeniable after getting up 3-0 in the series. On the other side, we have a Denver team that actually could complete a sweep, and is as rested as could be. For better or worse.

Game 1 is Thursday night and until then we are going to hear a lot about how the TV ratings are going to suck and about playing at altitude. All of those narratives check out, but for right now I am focused on how to bet the series (if at all). At first glance, it is hard to see much I like on the board, even though I am excited that players like Nikola Jokic and Jamal Murray are on the biggest stage.

NBA Finals Odds

Denver Nuggets vs Miami Heat
Series Price: Nuggets -400, Heat +300

Even though Denver is the top seed in the West this season they were not really expected to be here. Teams like Golden State Warriors, the Phoenix Suns, and then even the Los Angeles Lakers made compelling arguments, but here are the Nuggets. They were super efficient during the season and have been in the playoffs as well. They have only lost three times so far thanks to the brilliance of their top players.

Miami was not expected to be alive here either, not this season. Last year they had the top record in the Eastern Conference but this season it was a lot harder. They needed the play-in tourney just to get into the bracket but since then they have used culture and coaching to get back to the Finals. All without wing Tyler Herro, their best scorer (sorry Jimmy Butler, you are just their best player!!)

In terms of matchup history, it is hard to say what it means exactly, but the Nuggets have won six straight against Miami, covering every time. Most of those games have not been very close either. That does not shock me given that it aligns with Jokic's stretch of being the best player in the world and Miami having a hard time stopping that even though Bam Adebayo is one of the better defenders in the league. With the way that those two players played in their last series, it is looking like even more of an advantage for Denver right now.

At the current series price it is hard to make any play other than Miami right now. The Nuggets are strong favorites and that makes a lot of sense. The line feels like it is true too because Denver has not been a darling in the betting markets the way that other teams in the West (or Boston or Philly) have been. Look for an easy path to their first NBA title. Take the Nuggets in 5 games.

Quick Look at Game 1

Denver -8.5

Even though we just saw Miami win in Boston for the third time in a series the markets are not expecting another road win in the opener on Thursday. Miami has been great as an underdog in these playoffs, but there is a reason they have been that in so many games. You gotta love their culture and toughness, but these lines are often made with power rankings to start and an upset series win, or even a few of them, does not move the needle on those that much, hence the large spread.

Also, per the above, it is hard to see how the Heat are going to match up with Jokic, and if you cannot neutralize him you are toast against Denver. Adebayo is versatile, but nobody is more versatile than the "Joker," who can beat you inside and out, as a scorer and as a facilitator. Until we see how that matchup evolves, and I am confident that Miami coach Erik Spoelstra will have some ideas, it is hard to not like Denver at home.

Further, secondary players look like an advantage for the Nuggets too with the likes of Murray and Michael Porter Jr. offering secondary scoring, and reserve Bruce Brown giving them a little of everything else. Denver is not the greatest team of all time, but I think they might look like it in G1, taking advantage of a team trying to recover from an emotional series and having to play at altitude. Take the home side chalk.

More must-reads: