Analytics Reveal the Wisdom of Broncos Trading Back in the Draft
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Coming out of a fruitful NFL free agency period, Denver Broncos general manager George Paton was asked if he was planning to trade up in the 2023 NFL draft. It's a relevant question.
The Broncos still have roster holes and will draft in the third round after trading away picks to acquire Sean Payton and Russell Wilson in back-to-back years. Paton said he's more inclined to trade down for more draft capital. The prevailing thought is the more draft picks, the better.
Is trading down a prudent move, though? The numbers show with little doubt that the more draft picks a team has, the more likely it is to hit on a player.
The probabilities by round indicate that the draft odds are similar to rolling two dice. The more chances a team has, the more likely it will find that player who defies the odds. However, does trading back make it more likely for a team to find such a player?
It depends on how many selections the team receives and in what round. What if the Broncos decide to trade the No. 68 selection in the third round to accumulate more picks?
The old trade value chart, which is simply a series of descending numbers to indicate the value of a selection in a trade, indicates that trading the pick 78 would net No. 110 and No. 230.
Those are fourth-round and seventh-round selections. Getting two picks for one would give the Broncos more ammunition, but would it really be worth it based on the probability of selecting either an impact player or a starter?
No, it would not. Based on real data from a decade of past drafts and turning that data into probabilities of a player becoming an impact player or primary starter in the NFL, such a trade would not be of good value.
The probability of selecting an impact player at pick 68 is 0.117, and selecting a primary starter is 0.300. By trading away that pick based on the value chart, the Broncos would lose 0.041 in probability value for an impact player and a significant 0.118 in value for a primary starter.
Denver may get another selection, but the probability of hitting with those selections is less in total.
See for yourself. The calculator is located here.
Trading back for more selections doesn’t always translate to the Broncos having better odds. If Paton really wanted to get the even value, he would need to get a fourth and two sixth-round selections in exchange for the No. 68 pick.
It would be considered a significant victory if Paton extracted anything more than that. More isn’t always better. When trading back, accumulating the proper selections is the correct move.
If Paton does make a trade, we will all see whether it's a shrewd move or a misinformed one.
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