Conference USA has put on a show this postseason, with four of the league's top five schools making deep runs in their respective end-of-season tournaments. Last week, Charlotte claimed the CBI Tournament championship, and among the six D-1 schools still playing for something in late March, 50 percent hail from C-USA.
While Florida Atlantic's journey to the Final Four rightfully draws the most attention, college basketball diehards are gearing up for what should be another tightly contested game between UAB (-1.5) and North Texas in the NIT Championship Game on Thursday night (9:40 p.m. ET, ESPN2).
These two schools go head-to-head for a fourth time this season after two regular-season meetings and a clash in the C-USA Tournament semifinals, and as the current 1.5-point spread indicates, there's not much separating these two conference foes on a neutral court.
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Below, we'll break down Thursday night's NIT Championship rivalry while providing our predictions and best bet for this all-C-USA final. Thursday also marks the last meeting between UAB and North Texas as members of Conference USA, with the Blazers, Mean Green, Owls, and 49ers all joining the American Athletic Conference come July.
UAB vs. North Texas odds, picks, prediction for NIT Championship
- Spread: UAB -1.5 (-115); North Texas +1.5 (-105)
- Over/Under: OVER 127.5 (-115); UNDER 127.5 (-105)
- Moneyline: UAB -135; North Texas +110
Despite KenPom listing North Texas as slight one-point favorites in this matchup, the betting market currently sees UAB listed as short 1.5-point favorites. Given how stout the Mean Green are on the defensive end of the court (18th in adjusted defensive efficiency), it makes sense that KenPom's numbers slightly favor the Mean Green, but before we get into our pick, let's detail how these two teams got here.
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North Texas advanced to the NIT Championship following a 54-52 win over Wisconsin, a game in which the Mean Green trailed the Badgers by as many as 14 points in the first half. After Wisconsin freshman Connor Essegian canned a three-pointer to increase the Badger lead to 54-46 with 9:06 remaining in the second half, Wisconsin was held scoreless the remainder of the game, going 0-10 from the field in a gut-wrenching loss.
Sure, the Mean Green displayed their elite defensive fortitude in Tuesday's double-digit comeback, but against a much more potent UAB offense that knows how to attack North Texas' defense, we're not sure the Mean Green's offense is strong enough to claim an NIT title.
UAB earned a hard-nosed 88-86 overtime win over an underrated Utah Valley team to punch its ticket to the NIT Championship, finding a way to score over 1.00 points per possession with their go-to player, Jordan Walker (22.3 ppg), shooting just one-of-eight from three-point range. Unlike North Texas, UAB was in control of their semifinal matchup throughout, trailing only twice while leading by as many as 10 points.
It's rare that a player who attempts a shot on 34 percent of his team's possessions when on the floor will shoot five-of-23 from the field and still see his team keep its title hopes alive. With Walker likely to bounce back on Thursday night, we think the Blazers' offense outmatches the Mean Green's defense en route to an NIT Championship.
UAB's offense rates out as the 45th most efficient unit in D-1, scoring 112.6 points per 100 possessions. Although they've gone 1-2 head-to-head against North Texas, their offense hasn't been an issue the past two meetings, scoring an average of 77.5 points per game. While North Texas employs the nation's slowest offensive tempo, UAB wants to push the pace on offense and make this game a track meet.
Ultimately, we think UAB's ability to speed up the Mean Green results in an NIT Championship for the Blazers in their last game as members of C-USA.