COLUMBUS, Ohio — Someday, a tougher schedule and bad timing will presumably synch up for a true dip season for Ohio State football.
The program has not experienced a three-loss season — including the postseason — since the weird post-Tattoo-gate 2011 season. It happened only once in the six years prior to that, as well. The Buckeyes have averaged fewer than two losses per season for the past 18 years.
Well, this fall’s schedule features some tough matchups — especially on the road. One of our Buckeye Talk subscribers wants to know if this could be the year OSU slips back to the pack.
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Hey, Nathan: I listened to the pod about the 2023 Buckeyes being a “super team.” After listening to this pod I don’t think these Buckeyes will be a super team. Too many holes to fill in positions both offense and defense. With the schedule this year, is it possible they could lose to Penn State, Wisconsin, Michigan AND potentially Notre Dame? What say you? — Harry from the 484 Philadelphia
Hey, Harry: Point taken about the potentially tough schedule. It’s the eighth-toughest in the nation per this analysis by Sports Illustrated. Only Michigan State has a tougher schedule, though theirs is made more difficult by having to play OSU.
At one point, though, we thought last season’s schedule might be a bit of a minefield. We were wrong. On the field against Wisconsin and Iowa, the separation remained significant.
For all the reasons you named above, I understand the speculation about an increased chance of losing even one of those games. I don’t think you need to be worried about systemic issues that result in losses across the board.
Regardless of the lack of a quarterback decision, both candidates were highly recruited and have remained on trajectory to be productive passers. The offensive weapons at their disposal will be robust. The spring also provided reasons to expect the defense will improve again — perhaps more noticeably than last season — and buy the new QB and the rest of the offense some margin for error.
Three opponents have averaged a top-15 signing class over the past four years: Notre Dame (11.75), Michigan (14.0) and Penn State (14.75). Wisconsin averaged 31, but an improved performance with new coach Luke Fickell and some key transfers is a safe assumption.
Ohio State, though, posted top-five classes in each of the past five years. The best of them on paper was the 2021 class that now anchors this roster as third-year players. if Ohio State loses three or more regular-season games with that talent advantage, something has gone very wrong.
So sure, anything is possible, but I think such a drop-off is highly unlikely.
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