Best MLB NRFI/YRFI prop for San Diego Padres vs Chicago Cubs

Here is why I am playing this first inning prop in the San Diego Padres vs Chicago Cubs game tonight.
Chicago Cubs
Chicago Cubs / Matt Dirksen/GettyImages
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Tonight we are getting the return of Chicago Cubs starting pitcher Justin Steele. Steele will be making his first start on the Injured List when he faces the San Diego Padres tonight in Wrigley Field.

The Cubs and Padres will be playing their second three-game series of the season, with the Padres leading 2-1. This is a pick 'em game according to the oddsmakers, so instead of going with a Money Line play, I am playing a first-inning run prop that is more approachable.

San Diego Padres vs Chicago Cubs Odds, Spread, Total

San Diego Padres vs Chicago Cubs Prediction and Pick

Both of these teams have struggled recently scoring runs in the first inning. The Padres, on the season, started very well when playing on the road, scoring in the first inning 50% of the time. In their last 10 games, San Diego is 9-1 NRFI.

The Chicago Cubs have also recently had a hard time finding runs in the first period. In the last 10 games for the Cubs, they are 8-2 NRFI.

San Diego starting pitcher Yu Darvish has not allowed a first-inning run in his six starts this year, and while Justin Steele is making his return to the starting rotation, he has been an NRFI machine over the past two years, where he is 15-3 NRFI for 83%.

I expect both pitchers to get through the first inning unscathed tonight, in what is going to be a difficult hitting environment, with the winds blowing in from centerfield at 11 mph.

PICK: San Diego Padres vs Chicago Cubs No Run First Inning -140

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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