Mistakes Made in Power Rankings, Odds

Despite an offseason effort universally praised, the Bears have failed to impress some people.

Oddsmakers see little reason for optimism over changes made, like adding DJ Moore, Tremaine Edmunds and T.J. Edwards.

Both Ceasars and Betonline.ag have listed the over-under total for Bears wins at 7 1/2. It's only up by one-half since free agency and the trade down from No. 1. It goes hand in hand with the NFL power rankings released by ESPN after the key portion of free agency. The Bears are only ranked 27th overall.

None of this jibes with a free agency period hailed everywhere as among the best in the league. In fact, The Sporting News calls it No. 1 in the league.

While this might not impress the casual fan, at the very least it could offer a unique futures betting opportunity for several reasons.

The Bears won only three games but the 7 1/2 wins on the over-under total indicates instant recognition that they were nowhere near as bad as the record indicated.

Here are the general reasons they could be a rags-to-riches story and in the process make money for those putting futures money down on the over for their win total.

1. The Record

Three wins got them the first pick, the trade down and DJ Moore as well as a future No. 1 and No. 2 and a No. 2 this year. However, it didn't indicate the nature of the team they had built. They lost three times by a touchdown and conversion or less before trading Roquan Smith and Robert Quinn, then after they were without those two the still stayed within a field goal against the Dolphins, a point against Detroit and field goal against Atlanta before the bottom began to fall out the week Justin Fields was out injured against the Jets. It would have been very easy for them to have won six or seven times last year let alone after an offseason of building.

2. The Schedule

That's both last year's and this year's. They won three games but played the toughest schedule in the NFL last season in terms of overall winning percentage. It wasn't even close Bears opponents had a .555 winning percentage, 149-119-3. Miami was second-toughest at .541. Things change drastically from season to season in the NFL. The Bears went in thinking it was the eighth easiest schedule based on the previous year's schedule (.471). This brings things to this year's schedule, one which appears much easier than even the strength of schedule says. The Bears have the 18th most difficult list of opponents based on 2022 winning percentage (.497, 143-145-1). The Bears will play only seven games against teams in the top half of the NFL according to ESPN's power ranking, and only four games are against top-10 teams.

3. Justin Fields

NFL.com ranked Justin Fields now the 13th best quarterback in the NFL, up from 28th following the 2021 season. In fact, using the wins above replacement metric, Fields ranks higher at ninth in the league.

Fields' improvement in his second season closely resembled that of Jalen Hurts in Year 2 except without the strength of the supporting cast the Eagles QB had. A stronger group around him in Year 3 can make all the difference.

4. Free Agency

The gloom-and-doom 27th ranking doesn't jibe with a free agency period/offseason being hailed everywhere as among the best in the league. In fact, The Sporting News calls it No. 1 in the league.

5. The Draft

Already the trade down gives Fields a legitimate No. 1 receiver and a complement in skill set to both Chase Claypool and Darnell Mooney that they lacked last year. They were playing with backup receivers all season except for Mooney, and he went out for good in the 12th game. Last year GM Ryan Poles pulled in four starters during his first draft and didn't have a first-round or fourth-round pick. This year he has both a first-rounder and two fourth-rounders, and like last year he has two second-round picks and also has the first pick in the third round. If he even approaches last year's success it will mean they've filled many roster holes.

6. Secondary Health

The defense collapsed to allow 33.1 points a game over the final nine games. Not all of this had to do with losing Roquan Smith and Robert Quinn. Injuries played a huge part and those players are now healthy. As late as their Week 14 bye, their secondary was still ranked 11th against the pass. All the starting five secondary members missed at least two games and most more than that while backup Jaylon Jones missed the final games. Veterans Eddie Jackson (5), Jaylon Johnson (3) and Kindle Vildor (5) were badly missed when they  went on season-ending injured reserve.  In fact, injuries as a whole greatly impacted the Bears' record as 71% of their missed games due to injuries occurred in the final nine games, all losses.   

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