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Politics Podcast: The Election Isn’t Over

In this late-night edition of the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast, the crew discusses what we know so far about the results of the 2020 election. TL;DR there is still a lot we don’t know, and a lot of the vote is still uncounted. Clare Malone is a senior political writer for...
ELECTIONS
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FiveThirtyEight

How Politics Stick To Sports

In honor of Election Day here in the United States, we’re shaking up the format of the show a little this week. We briefly discuss whether or not Tampa Bay Rays manager Kevin Cash should have pulled Blake Snell out of Game Six — probably not for Nick Anderson, but it’s not like it was the kind of decision that the now-World Series Champion Los Angeles Dodgers wouldn’t have made. (They just capitalized on the Rays’ misfortune.) We also touch on Week 8 in the NFL, and what teams at least look sort of like favorites in this very odd year without clear favorites. Although all three hosts (and our model) still have to give the Kansas City Chiefs the benefit of the doubt, no one team looks quite like a sure thing. Except for poor Geoff’s New York Jets, that is, who made our survivor pool extremely difficult by having a bye week in which no one can bet against them.
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FiveThirtyEight

How We’re Preparing For Election Night And, Of Course, What We’re Watching

Election Day is finally here! It’s an important day for the country and an exciting day here at the FiveThirtyEight (virtual) offices. So how are we all preparing for tonight? And more importantly, what are we all going to be watching for as results start coming in? Plus, Galen attempts to interview Fivey Fox.
ELECTIONS
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FiveThirtyEight

Take Me Out To The Ballot Box

It’s a familiar sight in Boston in mid-October: a line of people, many decked out in Red Sox gear, stretched down Jersey Street, waiting to pass through Gate A and enter historic Fenway Park. But this year, they weren’t going to see a baseball game. They were going to vote.
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FiveThirtyEight

Exit Polls Can Be Misleading — Especially This Year

Exit polls are usually a core component of election-night reporting — especially before real results come in. They can provide an early sense of which candidate is leading and how certain key demographics voted. But here at FiveThirtyEight, we won’t be covering exit polls much at all, at least not on election night. That’s because pandemic-related changes to how the exit polls are being conducted will make them even less reliable this year.
ELECTIONS
FiveThirtyEight

Americans Say They’re Fired Up To Vote — Especially Democrats

Welcome to Pollapalooza, our weekly polling roundup. American voters are fired up to cast their ballots. And many already have, in record numbers. [Live Updates: We’re Tracking The Vote And Voting Problems]. According to the latest Gallup poll, released this morning, 69 percent of registered voters say that they are...
POTUS
FiveThirtyEight

The Battleground States Where We’ve Seen Some Movement In The Polls

With apologies to The Raconteurs, the presidential race continues to be “steady as she goes,” with little sign of tightening despite a plethora of new polls. FiveThirtyEight’s presidential forecast gives Joe Biden an 89 in 100 shot at winning the election, while President Trump has just an 11 in 100 chance. This makes Biden the favorite, but still leaves open a narrow path to victory for Trump, for whom a reelection win would be surprising — but not utterly shocking.
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