Michael J. Hicks

Last month I had the good fortune to sit down with the nation’s oldest Avon Lady, Mrs. Evelyn Nowakowski. Our chat was a treat for me, providing many interesting and relevant economic lessons. A more accomplished writer could easily get a full book out of her experiences. Readers of this column will have to be content with those economic lessons that are important today.

It is time to write about inflation again, although I allocated three columns to the subject in 2021. The first, in April, argued that inflation was a distant threat compared to the still sluggish economy recovery. With the passing of months, newer data confirmed that the economy was in worse shape than it then appeared, but also that inflation worsened faster than I expected. The second column, in August, explained some of the deep challenges economists faced in analyzing inflation. That was a column that pushed the need for humility in our understanding of when and how bad inflation could get. The third column, in October, noted the rising price level that was clearly apparent to shoppers.

It is time to write about inflation again, although I allocated three columns to the subject in 2021. The first, in April, argued that inflation was a distant threat compared to the still sluggish economy recovery. With the passing of months, newer data confirmed that the economy was in worse shape than it then appeared, but also that inflation worsened faster than I expected. The second column, in August, explained some of the deep challenges economists faced in analyzing inflation. That was a column that pushed the need for humility in our understanding of when and how bad inflation could get. The third column, in October, noted the rising price level that was clearly apparent to shoppers.

An obscure economic fad known as Modern Monetary Theory is again in the news. This is in part because its leading advocates are backing away from several of its central predictions, while simultaneously claiming the doctrine has won the policy debate. The whole thing is a bit absurd, and should bore most thoughtful Americans. These sort of academic debates, whether they be about some obscure archeological find or mathematical proof, are best left to sort themselves out within the research community.

An obscure economic fad known as Modern Monetary Theory is again in the news. This is in part because its leading advocates are backing away from several of its central predictions, while simultaneously claiming the doctrine has won the policy debate. The whole thing is a bit absurd, and should bore most thoughtful Americans. These sort of academic debates, whether they be about some obscure archeological find or mathematical proof, are best left to sort themselves out within the research community.

The pandemic continues to offer insights into a variety of economic phenomena. One that is particularly interesting is the role of automation, innovation and productivity growth. I can think of few better examples than that of Chick-fil-A. I must report that researching this column required several site visits. One cannot effectively judge productivity growth without some data on product quality. I trust readers appreciate that personal sacrifice.

Last weekend we set aside time to remember Dr. Martin Luther King Jr. and reflect upon his influence. Classrooms around the country will replay some of his speeches, and students together will read his “Letter from a Birmingham Jail.” It is necessary that they do so, and no Americans can count themselves as truly educated who have not read much of his most popular arguments.

The end of 2021 must be met with relief by most Americans. It was a grim and dangerous year that needed not have been so awful. As 2020 passed into memory, there were signs of hope everywhere. The miracle of vaccination offered to end the COVID pandemic that gave our economy its worst year on record and killed 375,000 of our neighbors. The bitter election of 2020 was over, and we could look forward to the 46th consecutive peaceful transition of a presidential power. The tranquility that follows from elections offered a quieter, more prosperous 2021. This hope was shattered, repeatedly and with grim and dangerous outcomes.