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EconoMonitor

Is the U.S. Economy in Recession?

The preliminary GDP (Gross Domestic Product) results of the U.S. for the second quarter, released by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) on Thursday, July 28, came with a drop of 0.9% in annualized terms. In the first quarter, it also showed a decline, in the order of 1.6% in annual terms, after the overheated GDP growing 6.9% a year in the last quarter of 2021.
BUSINESS
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EconoMonitor

The spectre of stagflation, with or without a monetary restriction

Inflation is not always and everywhere the same. It is like Covid, there are variants, and in Europe we have got a bad variant. There are two types of inflation: demand-pull and cost-push inflation. In the former type, a generalised pressure on prices arises from a tendency of the various ...

Quantitative Tightening and Capital Flows to Emerging Markets

In its May 15th meeting, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) of the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) lifted its benchmark policy rate by 0.75% to 1.50%–1.75%, the most significant increase since 1994. The central bank also signaled an additional increase of 0.75% ahead. FOMC members also raised the median projection for the Fed funds rate to a range between 3.25% and 3.50% next year.
ECONOMY
EconoMonitor

The Global Food Price Shock

Pandemic, war and death in Ukraine, and droughts in the last 2 years… Such a combination looks apocalyptical. Now it is adding global hunger risks, because of the food price crisis.

Argentina Avoids Falling into Arrears with the IMF

Last Friday, announcements of understanding between Argentine government authorities and the IMF staff about a new support program were made from both sides. Meanwhile, in addition to the payment of an amortization due on Friday, another payment is also expected this week, both referring to the previous package, approved in 2018 and substantially disbursed afterward. Non-payment could sour relations at a critical moment for a new program to be approved by the IMF's board of executive directors in time for disbursements to cover larger obligations due in March.
BUSINESS
EconoMonitor

The Post-Pandemic Great Reset

The pandemic has accelerated history by reinforcing some previous trends, leading the world to a “great reset”. Among the enduring consequences of the pandemic, four of them are here highlighted: digital transformation has been speeded up; globalization will be reshaped; higher public debt will be a legacy from the crisis; and some economic scarring from the pandemic in labor markets may be expected.

Decarbonization and “Greenflation”

Accelerating the transition toward low or net-zero carbon emissions is necessary to keep global warming at theoretically safe levels. That will likely bring price shocks associated with rising metal prices, energy costs, and carbon taxes – what has been called “greenflation”. Greening the economy will also require public spending and redistributive policies.
ECONOMY
EconoMonitor

The Metamorphosis of Finance and Capital Flows to Emerging Market Economies

The decade after the Great Financial Crisis of 2007–09 brought significant changes in the volume and composition of capital flows in the global economy. Portfolio investments and other non-bank financial intermediaries are responsible for an increasing share of foreign capital flows, while banking flows have shrunk in relative terms. This paper considers the implications of such a metamorphosis of finance for capital flows to emerging market economies (EMEs). After examining capital flows from the global financial crisis to the 2020-21 pandemic crisis, we analyze the extent to which a normalization of monetary policies in advanced economies may lead to shocks in those flows, as well as why exchange rate fluctuations between the U.S. dollar and other major currencies can affect capital flows to EMEs. Finally, we assess the range of policy instruments that EME policymakers tend to resort to manage risks derived from capital-flow volatility.

Could the U.S. and China Spoil Latin America’s Rebound?

The last year has seen some good news for Latin American economies. The region’s recovery has been stronger than expected, and growth forecasts by the World Bank and IMF have improved since six months ago. Vaccination campaigns and fiscal support have sparked an economic rebound since the second half of last year, despite an apparent loss of momentum in the third quarter of this year. But the future looks uncertain. Latin America is caught between two major global forces that threaten the region’s growth: a potential drop in capital flows from the U.S. as pandemic stimulus tapers off; and decreasing growth in China, where an energy crunch is hitting just as the country’s exhausted property markets begin to go into reverse. To weather the storm, countries in the region will have to target their fiscal support and signal that medium-term frameworks will be followed, while doing what it takes to ensure a private-sector recovery can compensate for policy contraction.
ECONOMY
EconoMonitor

Beijing 2022 Winter Olympics, Light in the Pandemic Tunnel

As the Beijing 2022 Winter Olympics are only one quarter away, China is preparing for extraordinary games in the most challenging time. In 2015, when the International Olympic Committee (IOC) awarded the 2022 Winter Games to Beijing, the world looked very different. Today, expectations are framed ...