University ‘enrollment cliff’ rolling into Iowa

IOWA CITY — This is the highest number of high school graduates the state of Iowa is likely to see for the next two decades, a Board of Regents staffer said this week as part of his fall 2026 enrollment report.

With Iowa’s long-awaited enrollment cliff beginning in 2027, local colleges and universities that rely on both in- and out-of-state enrollment will feel the double-whammy of larger declines in students from neighboring states like Illinois, Wisconsin, Missouri, and Minnesota, according to Jason Pontius, associate chief academic officer for the board.

“We’re already one year into the enrollment cliff for every other state,” Pontius told regents, pointing to updated national data projecting the number of high school graduates in Iowa will decline 9% between now and 2041. The percentages in neighboring states: 29% in Illinois, 16% in Wisconsin, 14% in Missouri, and 13% in Minnesota.

This fall’s combined enrollment across Iowa’s three public universities reached 71,520 — which was down half a percentage point from last fall’s 71,872 and 11% from a decade ago.

Aggravating those losses are shifting attitudes and plans around higher ed — with new high school graduates increasingly jumping straight into the workforce instead of enrolling in college.

“As important as these demographic trends are the Iowa high school college-going rates, which have been declining over the last 12 to 15 years,” Pontius said.

In 2024, 61% of Iowa’s high school graduates said they planned to pursue some form of higher education — down from 70% in 2012.

“On the positive side of things, there is some evidence that the 61% rate that we’re seeing is starting to stabilize, and we may be hitting the floor,” Pontius said. “Unfortunately, as we hit that floor, we seem to be now getting to a place where our pool is going to start to shrink.”

Enrollment is just one of several headwinds threatening American colleges and universities, which are becoming increasingly competitive within the shrinking pool of prospective students. They’re also facing cost issues with inflation; federal uncertainty in financial aid and research funding; stagnant state appropriations; and questions about value — with students and families increasingly asking if the cost is worth the benefit.

College plans

Those shifting attitudes — cataloged by recent Gallup polls, including one in October headlined “Record-Low 31% Say College Education Is ‘Very Important’” — are true locally as well as nationally, as exhibited by shifts in what Iowa students say about their plans after high school.

The percent planning to attend community college has dropped from 40% to 27%. Those planning to go to a regent university has dropped from 29% to 26%, and the portion eyeing a private four-year institution has slipped from 14% to 11%, according to Iowa Department of Education data.

Meanwhile, 18% plan to go straight into the workforce — up from 8% in 2005 and bringing that group within 8 percentage points of those planning to attend a public university.

“Whenever we see a decline in enrollment in the universities, it’s like, ‘Oh, it’s because students are going out of state,’” Pontius said. “That has not been the case. We’ve been tracking that for about 15 years, and that number has been very flat the entire time.

Looking at the trends of what students actually do after high school — and not just what they plan to do — about 18% in 2025 attended one of Iowa’s public universities, down from 20% in 2019; 34% attended community college, down from 42%; and nearly that many — 32% — didn’t go to college at all, up from 20% just six years ago.

Out-of-state students

This fall’s enrollment in Iowa’s public universities revealed the schools are becoming increasingly reliant on out-of-state students — with the combined non-resident enrollment swelling to 26,142, the highest in recent history, if not ever.

“Because the enrollment cliff has hit everywhere else, I would have expected fairly sizable declines in out-of-state students coming to our regent universities,” Pontius said. “That is not the case for this year. The growth has maybe gone down a little bit. But instead of a decline, we have actually increased the number of out-of-state students coming in.”

The biggest provider of non-resident students to Iowa’s public universities is Illinois — which is projecting the steepest demographic declines in the coming years — followed by Minnesota, Wisconsin and Missouri, all of which will see losses as well.

And then there’s the massive drops in international students across all three campuses.

“Total enrollment from Fall 2016 to now has dropped 8,606 students,” Pontius said. “Of that, the international student decline represents 50%. It’s been sizable.”

Of the international student decline, 83% represents students from China.

“There are some larger issues that are going on,” Pontius said. “It’s not just a failure to attract students to our universities.”

University response

In response to the enrollment headwinds — along with all the other pressures the campuses are facing — Iowa’s university presidents are laying out plans to cut costs and improve efficiency, while continuing to pursue their mission of teaching and research excellence in service of the community, state, nation and world.

The University of Iowa, for example, has saved $3.3 million through recent efficiency efforts and reallocated nearly $8 million to specific budget priorities. It’s addressed $135 million in deferred maintenance by “rightsizing” its campus. It brings in about $70 million annually in philanthropy.

Iowa State University has saved $25.6 million by joining the other campuses in cost-saving procurement contracts and reallocating more than $10 million “to support core operations and institutional priorities.”

UNI is focused on diversifying its revenue streams — like by recruiting more out-of-state students through its instate tuition offer to those from border states.

“Financial sustainability requires continuous innovation, not simply reducing expenses, but finding better ways to deliver our mission and create value,” according to UNI President Mark Nook.