I like what the Miami Dolphins have done this offseason with their roster and coaching staff, leaving the team with the potential to make a Super Bowl run. However, talk is cheap, and division titles and championships are won on the field during the season, not in the offseason. For all the moves made to upgrade the roster, the Buffalo Bills are still the team to beat in the AFC East. I have always believed that the team that won the division the year before is always the team to beat, no matter what. Plus, the last I checked, the Bills have won the division three straight years, and that’s a hard pill to swallow for a Dolphins fan.
What gives hope is that the Dolphins played the Bills to the final possession in their three games last year. Every game was decided by three points or less. I can’t remember a time as long as I’ve been watching this rivalry where games were decided like that in a season. In the playoff game, the Dolphins had the ball and a chance to win the game with their third-string quarterback, so the Dolphins have seemed to close the gap in that regard because the previous season, the Dolphins hadn’t come close to beating the Bills, as evidenced by losing seven straight games to them. The Dolphins’ defense sacked Josh Allen seven times in that playoff game and pressured him even more, which is something they hadn’t done with Josh Boyer as their defensive coordinator in six previous games. The Dolphins have talent on defense, but that never showed against the Bills, as Allen has owned the Dolphins in his career.
The most significant upgrade the Dolphins made was when coach Mike McDaniel decided to make a change at defensive coordinator by letting Josh Boyer go and hiring Vic Fangio, considered one of the best defensive minds in the NFL. Boyer did a good job with this defense, but my problem was that he feasted on average quarterbacks, and when they played better offenses like Allen and the Bills, their defense didn’t show up or make plays with consistency. In the playoff game against the Bills, Boyer’s defense played great, but it was frustrating because the defense didn’t play well all season long, and they hadn’t played like that against the Bills during his previous three seasons. Something had to change, and McDaniel recognized this and made the switch to Fangio. Fangio said he "is going to tap into this talent to make it the best it can be.” I believe Fangio can do this, and a new direction with a more veteran coach may help, but I have to see it on the field. Some will say injuries played a role in the defense last year, and that is true, but even before the injuries, there was something off with the defense, and I think McDaniel felt the same.
The Bills have an advantage at quarterback, and nobody can dispute that with Allen. At this time, he is the best quarterback in this division, but he has flaws, like everyone. If you put pressure in his face, his throws are off. Sometimes he tries to do too much, which can be a blessing and a curse, as he tends to turn the football over; but he makes plays and big throws on crunch time with the game on the line.
Tua Tagovailoa, last season, showed that he can throw the ball down the field and make timely throws now that he finally had a coach and an offensive structure to get the most out of his abilities. The problem with Tagovailoa is his durability, as he was in concussion protocol twice last year and missed multiple games two different times, including the end of the season. The offense suffered without Tagovailoa. The big plays weren’t happening, and the offense was stagnant without him. For all of the improvement in his game last year, it comes down to his availability, and if he’s on the field, the Dolphins will be fine, as he showed last year. In a big game in Buffalo in December, Tagovailoa played well and showed he could play in the elements, but he’s got to stay on the field.
Outside of quarterback, both rosters, talent-wise, seem pretty even, but the Dolphins have to show it on the field. The Bills roster is overrated, and it has shown in their playoff losses, especially this year against the Cincinnati Bengals. Think about, for all the praise general manager Brandon Beane gets for building this roster outside of drafting Allen, where has his area been at drafting? Dolphins general manager Chris Grier gets blasted for his misses on the offensive line in the draft, but Beane has done no better outside of Dion Dawkins and Mitch Morse, and it showed in the playoff game. Also, for as much as everyone praises the Bills’ defense because they are ranked in the tops every year, they are a no-show in the playoffs. The Kansas City Chiefs shredded them two years in a row, and this year, the Bengals were playing without three starters on their offensive line.
The Bills drafted some early-round picks on their defensive line in AJ Epenesa, Ed Oliver, Greg Rousseau and Carlos Basham. The Bills haven’t gotten the return on their investment in those players, and it’s why they gave Von Miller a huge contract last offseason, even though he’s in his mid-30s and at the end of his career. Miller tore his ACL in the middle of this season, and none of those guys stepped up their game. Oliver was picked No. 9 overall in the 2019 draft and was considered by some as the next Aaron Donald. Well, he isn’t even half the player Donald is. If fact, the same year, Christian Wilkins was drafted by the Dolphins four picks later, and it’s safe to say Wilkins is by far the better player.
For all of the praise Beane gets, and rightfully so, for the Bills’ success, he should receive the blame for his failures. The Bills haven’t gotten consistent running backs for a running game, and Allen’s scrambling ability pads the Bills running game stats, but it makes Allen susceptible to hits, and at some point, he’s going to take a hit and get hurt. Then what? Without Allen, the Bills would be average at best. Yes, Beane drafted the quarterback, but for the rest of the roster, he’s been lagging, and there’s a reason they haven’t gotten over the hump.
Grier isn’t perfect as a general manager as he hasn’t drafted well with the offensive line or put real resources into the running back position. The Dolphins always seem to draft a running back late in the draft or get a cheap one in free agency. The other criticism of Grier is he goes after players who have durability issues year after year, such as Tagovailoa, Terron Armstead and Bradley Chubb, to name a few. They all have talent, but their availability is questionable as the season goes on. Most of the players hurt down the stretch were injury-bug players. However, Grier has built a talented defense by drafting players like Wilkins, Javon Holland, Brandon Jones, Xavien Howard, and Jerome Baker. He also found some hidden gems like Zach Zeiler and Kader Kohu. Last year, he made a big splash acquiring Tyreek Hill, giving Tagovailoa one of the most explosive players in the league on offense to compliment Jaylen Waddle. Tagovailoa benefited, and he showed he could make big plays down the field, and the offense showed explosiveness not seen since the Dan Marino days. Grier has assembled a talented roster with potential, but they must show it on the field.
This offseason so far, Grier has a couple of players on defense, like linebacker David Long and safety Deshon Elliott to compete on defense. On offense, he added quarterback Mike White, who hopefully is an upgrade as the backup quarterback when Tagovailoa goes down. The most underrated signing was a wide receiver, Braxton Berrios. Berrios gives the Dolphins a kick returner that was missing on special teams, and he is an underrated slot receiver, so that should improve the special teams in the return game, at the very least, as the Dolphins were at the bottom in return yards.
The surprise this offseason was that Grier was able to keep some of their own free agents, such as all of their running backs Raheem Mostert, Jeff Wilson, Salvon Ahmed and Myles Gaskin. I was expecting the Dolphins to reboot that position, especially with them being tight against the cap, but all of them returned on short-term deals.
The biggest surprise to me was they re-signed linebacker Andrew Van Ginkel and defensive back Nik Needham to one-year contracts. Van Ginkel got lost in the shuffle for whatever reason, but he is around the football to make big plays on a fumble return or a sack. I thought he would go elsewhere, especially with his diminished playing time. Needham, I wasn’t as surprised, considering he is coming off of a season-ending injury, but he has established himself as one of the better nickelbacks in the league. Grier also made the splash by acquiring Jalen Ramsey from the Los Angeles Rams for only a third-round pick and backup tight end Hunter Long. Ramsey is a clear upgrade over Bryon Jones because of his play-making ability and his ability to play multiple spots in the secondary.
This roster is much more talented right now than any team I can remember in years, but championships are won on the field during the season, and the Dolphins have to prove they are ready to dethrone the Bills for the AFC East title. They took steps last year, but they must beat them in big games, like the wild-card game or the late-season game, with the playoff race heating up. Until they do that, the Bills are the team to beat until proven wrong.
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