It’s official. Lamar Jackson no longer wants to be a Baltimore Raven.
Per his own recollection, the 2019 NFL MVP made that decision back on March 2, but he took his trade request public nearly four weeks later. The timing was not coincidental. After languishing through the start of free agency on the non-exclusive franchise tag, Jackson set up his trade request tweet specifically to capitalize on head coach John Harbaugh’s spotlight.
As the two-time Super Bowl winner addressed the media in Phoenix at the annual coaches’ meeting and backed Jackson as his presumptive QB1, the 26-year-old told the world he wanted out.
win the super bowl. You all are great but I had to make a business decision that was best for my family and I. No matter how far I go or where my career takes me, I’ll continue to be close to my fans of Baltimore Flock nation and the entire State of Maryland. You’ll See me again
— Lamar Jackson (@Lj_era8) March 27, 2023
It’s another twist in a long-unfolding saga that began as contract talks two years ago and has split into a chasm between the two sides. Jackson reportedly turned down pricy contract extensions in search for a fully guaranteed deal similar to the one the Cleveland Browns gave Deshaun Watson despite his history of more than 20 accusations of sexual misconduct and what the league itself described as “predatory behavior.” Jackson denies that’s the case and can point to the franchise’s continued inability to surround him with playmakers as evidence he hasn’t been set up to thrive in recent years.
All we know for sure at this point is that the drama between these two is now messy and public. There are five resolutions to this impasse. Let’s break them down.
1
The Ravens ignore Jackson's request, potentially forcing him to hold out (or hold-in)
Baltimore placed Jackson under the non-exclusive franchise tag after his rookie contract expired after 2022. That means he’ll get a guaranteed $32,416,000 in 2023 — if he signs that tender.
If Jackson truly does not want to play for the Ravens without a long-term deal (or even at all), he can refuse to sign and begin his hold out. That’s what Le’Veon Bell did in 2018 when the Pittsburgh Steelers refused to meet his contract demands and instead tagged him that spring.
Bell forfeited his salary that season but eventually won his freedom from Pittsburgh. He signed a four-year, $52.5 million deal with the New York Jets the following offseason (it didn’t end well; he was released 17 games and four touchdowns later and hasn’t been a full-time starter since).
Jackson could also sign the non-exclusive tag and “hold-in,” which has become a popular strategy in recent years. In this case, he’d show up to training camp and team activities but not participate, avoiding costly fines in the process (he can’t be fined if he holds out by not signing his tender, since he wouldn’t be under contract or getting paid anyway). That could show potential suitors he’s willing to go through the motions and stay in shape as long as there’s an end goal in sight. Or it could create a distraction that dents his value.
Either way, not playing is very much an option no matter how he goes through with it.
2
The Ravens trade Jackson after holding out for a Russell Wilson-type haul
In this scenario, Jackson gets his wish — but the timing means his suitors are limited. The only teams in the league without a cemented QB1 or a top 10 draft pick are the New York Jets, Washington Commanders, Tampa Bay Buccaneers and kinda/sorta the Tennessee Titans and New England Patriots.
The simplest way to do this would be through the non-exclusive tag. Teams are free to offer Jackson a contract that the Ravens have the right to match if they want to keep their quarterback on the roster. If they decline, the signing team is compelled to send two first-round picks to Baltimore.
This isn’t the only way to get the job done. If Jackson finds an offer he likes, he can work out a scenario in which he signs his franchise tag, then the Ravens trade him for whatever haul they deem acceptable. He’d then be able to sign a mega-extension after landing in his new home, theoretically leaving all parties satisfied.
Teams have been curiously trigger-shy on making an offer on the available Jackson since he was placed under the non-exclusive tag. Was it a treatise on his value? Low-key collusion? Or maybe just waiting out the market and hoping a public trade request would pry apart some of the Ravens’ leverage and drop the asking price for the 26-year-old former MVP?
Either way, working out a deal will require handling a few different moving parts. But the offseason is long and there’s room to work this out — particularly after April if a team thinks Jackson is the missing piece to a playoff run and would prefer to deal its 2024 and 2025 draft picks rather than higher-value selections this spring.
3
Jackson signs his franchise tender and plays out the 2023 season in hopes of raising his value
If there’s no trade partner on the horizon, no extension deemed worthy and a hold out feels too drastic, Jackson can sign his franchise tender and play out the 2023 season for $32.4 million in hopes of luring suitors for 2024. Doing so would be betting against injury or degraded play in the upcoming season — particularly risky given the fact Jackson has missed 10 games the past two seasons and been fairly average in terms of advanced stats (with an extremely grim receiving corps available) when on the field.
via RBSDM.com and the author.
Kirk Cousins spent two years in franchise tag limbo with Washington, earning a shade under $44 million in two years before becoming too expensive for Dan Snyder to retain. That led him to a fully guaranteed deal with the Minnesota Vikings, albeit a three-year, $84 million pact that wouldn’t meet Jackson’s reported standard even after inflation.
Additionally, Cousins was in his age 30 season, was a zero-time All-Pro, had never won a playoff game and was very much Kirk Cousins at the time he signed his deal. Jackson turns 27 in January, was an MVP and has some (but not much) postseason success. He could follow the Cousins route to a much more lucrative destination, though his recent backslide and injury concerns make this a risky proposition.
4
The Ravens and Jackson compromise (or one side caves) and come to a long-term contract extension
Jackson reportedly turned down a deal that would have paid him $250 million along with $133 million in guarantees before the 2022 season. He later denied this.
133/3years fully guaranteed😒 but I need a agent? 🤣🤦🏾♂️
— Lamar Jackson (@Lj_era8) March 14, 2023
It’s unclear what kind of deal would keep Jackson in Baltimore or, indeed, what the Ravens would be willing to offer at this point. The Watson deal broke the scale for quarterback guarantees. The $230 million the Cleveland Browns gave him before ever playing a snap for the franchise was $106 million more in day one guaranteed cash than anyone in NFL history has ever gotten.
In second place is Russell Wilson’s deal with the Denver Broncos. It’s possible Baltimore isn’t willing to extend such a deal, especially for a quarterback with massive, incredible upside but backsliding performances (again, alongside a limited supporting cast) the past two years.
This is a definite possibility, albeit not a likely one at this point. Jackson and the Ravens had two years to work this out and failed. Maybe outside pressure forces one side to cave, but Monday’s trade declaration casts doubt on it.
5
Jackson signs an offer sheet from an outside team, only for the Ravens to match that offer
If Jackson can find a contract offer he’s willing to take while under the non-exclusive franchise tag, he can force the Ravens’ hand. Presenting the team with an offer sheet will either compel it to match those terms or let him go an recoup two first round picks in the process.
Simply giving Jackson the non-exclusive tag suggests Baltimore is open to the latter option. However, if general manager Eric DeCosta feels like Jackson’s contract offer is something he can live with and that this rift can be smoothed over, the Raven can sign their quarterback to that offer sheet and keep him in the fold for however long the deal dictates.
Or maybe the team would match out of spite, then continue to stock its receiving corps with players like Andy Isabella, Sammy Watkins and a 36-year-old DeSean Jackson. The second option would be more of a social experiment than recipe for winning football and thus seems unlikely.
