What to expect for Washington's fall weather this year

Good news for Seattle's rain enthusiasts: The latest fall forecast shows sweater weather may be a bit wetter than usual.

Why it matters: A precipitation outlook released by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Climate Prediction Center on Aug. 15 predicts above-normal rainfall across the Pacific Northwest in September, October and November.

• The temperature outlook , also issued last week, shows equal chances for above, below and normal temperatures in the region over those same three months, NOAA meteorologist Scott Handel told Axios.

What's happening: The seasonal outlooks show the footprint of La Niña's anticipated arrival this fall and winter, which is driving the forecast, Handel said.

• There's a 66% chance for La Niña to develop this fall and a 74% chance it will develop through the winter, he said.

The intrigue: Last year's El Niño brought above-average sea surface temperatures and, in addition to human-caused global warming , helped make 2023 the hottest year on record.

• But it followed three consecutive La Niña years, Handel said. If another develops, it will be our 13th since 1990, he said.

Threat level: November is already Seattle's wettest month, National Weather Service Seattle meteorologist Dev McMillian told Axios.

• And La Niña years can bring more heavy rain and flooding to the Pacific Northwest, per NOAA .

Yes, but: With drought declared in April over most of Washington state, a La Niña winter is potentially very good news for our snowpack, which determines water supply and is arguably the most crucial climate-related variable in the Pacific Northwest, deputy state climatologist Karin Bumbaco has said .

The big picture: Most of the country is expected to experience an unusually hot and dry fall this year, according to NOAA's Climate Prediction Center.

• The highest probability (above 60%) for above-normal temperatures is predicted for parts of the Southwest and in the Northeast.

The bottom line: If this outlook holds, it might be wise to get those parkas and rain boots out early.

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