Will J.J. McCarthy be a top-five pick? Experts explain why Michigan QB has rocketed up 2024 NFL Draft boards

NFL Network draft analyst Daniel Jeremiah explains the mystery around Michigan quarterback J.J. McCarthy’s draft stock by telling a second-hand story.

McCarthy was watching film with representatives from an NFL team. The Wolverines entered the red zone, and McCarthy told the reps to fast forward. When the reps asked for an explanation, McCarthy said, "Well, this is just Michigan football from here on in. We're just going to run the ball. Why throw it if you don't have to throw it?"

"It's a difficult evaluation," Jeremiah told Sporting News. "You can see him doing everything you want him to do or you need a big-time quarterback to do. It's just the numbers in terms of the volume are not there."

That hasn’t stopped McCarthy’s ascension up 2024 NFL Draft boards, and there are hints he might be a top-five pick on Thursday night.

Jeremiah and ESPN draft analyst Mel Kiper Jr. talked with SN about McCarthy's meteoric rise, potential top-five status, and whether he's actually a top-five value.

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Why has J.J. McCarthy risen up 2024 NFL Draft boards?

McCarthy (6-2, 219 pounds) has prototypical quarterback measurements, and he performed well at the NFL Combine and his Michigan Pro Day.

The college career checks out. He finished 27-1 as a starter for the Wolverines the past two seasons, led Michigan to its first national championship since 1997, and finished with 6,226 passing yards, 49 TDs, and 11 interceptions. He added another 632 rushing yards and 10 TDs on the ground.

"You've got somebody, that if you look at him from a size standpoint, he's put on like 15 pounds in the last year," Jeremiah told SN. "He's still growing into his body. He's going to be a bigger guy. Everybody that was at the pro day that I talked to said he threw it as well or better than any of the top quarterbacks."

Former Michigan coach Jim Harbaugh, now with the Los Angeles Chargers, has compared McCarthy to Andrew Luck, Patrick Mahomes, and Josh Allen. Kiper sees one of those comparisons.

"You talk about Josh Allen type competitiveness, he has it," Kiper told SN. "He's a very good athlete. He'll run in the 4.5's. He's a very athletic kid. He beat that Washington defense with his legs on that key play."

McCarthy played in a run-oriented Michigan offense that is conservative by college and NFL standards.

"The pressure he was under at certain points to make plays because it was a case where it was old school," Kiper said. "You weren't throwing the ball over the [field]. You weren't throwing it 45 times in a game where you could throw a few incompletions."

Even with that small volume, however, McCarthy made plays on third down, posting a 67.1-percent completion percentage with six TDs and zero interceptions last season. On fourth down, McCarthy was 7-of-8 for 82 yards, one TD, and zero interceptions. That included a huge conversion to Blake Corum in the 27-20 victory against Alabama in the College Football Playoff semifinal at the Rose Bowl.

McCarthy also had good numbers on passes of 20 yards or more compared to USC’s Caleb Williams, LSU’s Jayden Daniels, and North Carolina’s Drake Maye — the consensus projected top-three picks in the draft. A look at those numbers, according to Pro Football Focus :

Passes of 20 yards or more

Daniels was throwing to a pair of potential first-round picks in Malik Nabers and Brian Thomas Jr. Williams and Maye had more opportunities in the deep passing game. McCarthy has the same efficiency, but that lack of volume is perceived as a difference.

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Why J.J. McCarthy could slide down first round

Jeremiah and Kiper said despite that impressive track record, there still is some uncertainty around McCarthy heading into the draft.

"There are some things you can latch on to there. You're just going to have to have some faith – some do and some don't – on what you are buying there," Jeremiah said.

Kiper said McCarthy did not throw too many interceptions in college, but they came at critical times, including two pick-sixes in the College Football Playoff semifinal against TCU on Dec. 31, 2022.

Kiper also said McCarthy now faces the challenge of leading a NFL team, and it will be much different than the setup he had with the Wolverines the past two seasons. Michigan averaged 169.1 rushing yards per game and had the top scoring defense in the nation at 10.4 points per game last season.

"You've gotta carry a team in the NFL," Kiper said. "You're not going to be able to rely on a running game and defense in the NFL. You've gotta be able to make plays at critical moments, and he did do that in the national title game."

J.J. McCarthy draft projection from NFL Network's Daniel Jeremiah

Jeremiah does not see a draft slide. He believes McCarthy will not be on the board past Denver, who has the No. 12 pick in the first round.

"I feel like if you tell me that J.J. McCarthy goes beyond the 12th pick, I would be shocked," Jeremiah said. "Outside of that, everything is on the table. Whether or not that's a trade-up to 4, 5, whether that's a trade-up a couple spots, or those teams stand pat. All of those options are in play.

"In terms of him going, the Vikings are the team that's connected [most] to him, then the Denver Broncos," he said.  "Is that enough to warrant a move all the way up there, or do those teams try to be patient and see how it falls? That I don't know."

So, it’s a game-within-the-game between Minnesota at No. 11 and Denver at No. 12. Which team feels compelled to trade up to get McCarthy? If either do, then he could go in the top five.

Jeremiah sees one potential caveat to keep an eye on: Minnesota could make a move for Maye.

"If the trade-up for Minnesota ends up being Drake Maye and not J.J. McCarthy, I don't know who the other J.J. McCarthy team is," Jeremiah said. "I think at that point, if you're Denver ... then you stick and pick and get the fourth quarterback at No. 12."

J.J. McCarthy draft projection from ESPN's Mel Kiper Jr.

Kiper believes there is a risk for overdraft with McCarthy if a team jumps into the top five to take him. Kiper has McCarthy at No. 14 on his NFL Draft Big Board.

"I always wanted a defining moment where you would say, 'Boy, he's an early-to-mid first-rounder,'" Kiper said. "We just didn't see it. So, that's why I put him at 14. Some have him lower than that. Is he going to be overdrafted? Probably."

"At 14 or 21, wherever you have him, it doesn't really matter, you are not going to take him at five or six," he said. "I think it's overdrafting of a quarterback if he goes that high, even at 11."

Kiper does not believe that McCarthy will get past the No. 11 pick. It's a matter of what happens with Maye and how close McCarthy follows the North Carolina quarterback in the draft.

"If you are taking him, you have to have McCarthy rated as one of your five best players in this draft," Kiper said. "It seems like it is trending that Drake Maye goes early, then J.J. McCarthy is either right there with him or right behind him. We know Drake has been locked into that third spot all along. … I'm going to trust some of the intel, which suggests [McCarthy] goes inside pick 11."

Will the Minnesota Vikings draft J.J. McCarthy with a top-five pick?

This is the conventional landing spot. SN’s Vinnie Iyer has McCarthy going at No. 11 to Minnesota in his seven-round mock draft . Iyer writes:

"The Vikings will do their best to move up, as they now have two first-rounders in play, but McCarthy's live arm and gritty athletic playmaking should appeal to them here should he fall past the non-QB needy teams."

Kiper also believes that the Vikings are the right fit at No. 11, but he expected them to trade up and get him at No. 5 . Jeremiah also has the Vikings making a trade to get McCarthy at No. 4 .

Position need will be the difference in making that decision to trade up.

"The Minnesota Vikings would be the team at 11, in that division with [Jared] Goff, and Caleb [Williams] now in the division, and Jordan [Love] emerging as a star," Kiper said. " I have said this on every media call we've done in the last 41 years: you have to keep up with your division. If you have the fourth-best quarterback in your division, then you have no shot."